Swedish General Election, 2010

This election was really messed up. The country that someone like Sarah Palin might call "the crown jewel of democratic socialism" has just moved to the right in a big way: they elected an alliance of Right-Centrist parties that might need the support of an extreme right-wing nationalist (quasi-racist? Nazi?) party in order to form a majority ooalition government. Scary!

Nevertheless, Sweden has followed the example of many other nations these past few years (UK, Germany, Denmark, just to name a few) who have suprised conventional wisdom by moving more towards the right at the height of an economic downturn (See also: The Right-Ward Shift, 2008-2010).

BTW, I've tried to copy the Wikipedia article to this page (here on Omnipedia), but for some weird reason, the wikia spam filter won't let me. Could it be that the Naziesque Swedish Democrats (the far right-wing party) is spamming the Wikipedia page?

OK, here I go again, trying to copy this damn Wikipedia page:

The 2010 general election to the Riksdag or Swedish parliament was held on 19 September 2010. The governing centre-right coalition The Alliance, led by Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt (leader of the liberal-conservative Moderate Party), faced an election battle against the opposing Red-Greens coalition, led by Mona Sahlin (leader of the Social Democrats), with the outgoing government narrowly leading in pre-election polling.

Final results showed the Alliance winning 173 seats, 2 short of an overall majority, with the Red-Green coalition dropping to 156 seats. The Sweden Democrats (SD) broke the 4% national vote threshold and won 20 seats, entering the parliament for the first time. The election was the first time in almost a century that Sweden re-elected a centre-right government that had served a full term.

Campaign
One of the main campaign themes was the Economy of Sweden.

Reinfeldt ruled out forming a government in cooperation with the Sweden Democrats. Both parliamentary blocs pledged not to seek support from the SD saying the party represents "xenophobic views that run counter to Sweden's tradition of tolerance."

The Sweden Democrats (SD) have said they want to cut asylum and immigration by relatives of those already living in Sweden by 90 percent. It also describes Muslim immigration as the "biggest foreign threat to Sweden since Second World War."

Polling
After the election in September 2006, the government slipped well behind the red-green opposition in the polls. A Sifo poll conducted in February 2008 showed the three opposition parties leading over the government with 19.4 percentage points. However, this lead steadily eroded during the second half of the government's term, even despite the opposition joining its forces against the ruling Alliance in a Red-Green co-operation in December 2008.

Sweden Democrats were expected to enter the Parliament for the first time, as party's polling results exceeded the 4% entry threshold since June 2009. Green Party also made a significant transformation from the smallest elected party to the third largest party during the term, overtaking the Left Party, the Christian Democrats, the Liberals and even the Centre Party in most polls following the 2006 election.

Controversy
There was controversy between the parties represented in parliament and other parties on the ballot. One unrepresented party, the Sweden Democrats (SD) faced especially sharp opposition from the established parties and from critics.

Debates
The parties already represented in the Swedish parliament, along with the Swedish television networks, have excluded minor parties, most notably SD (but also the June List, the Feminist Initiative, and the Pirate Party), from the televised political debates.

Sweden Democrats
The Sweden Democrats have had their rallies disrupted by political activists associated with left-wing and anti-racist movements. Some SD party members were threatened. For many years, the party's meetings have been disturbed by demonstrations by left-wing groups such as Anti-Fascist Action and other opposing groups.

On 13 September in Gothenburg, about 500 counter-demonstrators prevented the Sweden Democrats from making a planned election rally. Police used pepper spray to disperse the counter-demonstration, which lacked a permit, and seven people were detained.

On 14 September, the Sweden Democrats cancelled planned rallies in three cities, Eskilstuna, Karlstad, and Uddevalla, because of security concerns. Similarly, concerns about security led to an election tour being cancelled on 15 September in Norrköping.

After these cancelled election rallies, the National Police Commissioner Bengt Svenson severely criticized the county police for failing to safeguard the Sweden Democrats: "It is not possible to implement them [in those locales], so the police have failed in its planning and execution of its mission. [ . . . ] It is a serious problem when such meetings cannot be held, because it is our absolute duty to ensure that the constitutionally guaranteed rights be maintained and that all meetings can be held".

A privately owned television network, TV4, refused to air a SD campaign video, which was then uploaded to Youtube and viewed more than 600,000 times. The SD video portrayed a track-meet, in which the race is for pension funds. In the video, a Swedish pensioner is out-run by burka-clad women. Several politicians in Denmark, where the Danish People's Party is part of the governing coalition, reacted to the TV4 decision by calling for international election observers to be sent to Sweden. These attempts to limit the SD message were described by Al Jazeera as counterproductive in that they enabled the SD to portray itself as a victim of censorship.

Similarly, Hanne Kjöller at the liberal Dagens Nyheter has hypothesised that the attacks have strengthened the Sweden Democrats rather than lowering their support. "Jimmie Åkesson becomes a poor underdog and the picture of a party that is holding some dangerous but important truth is enhanced." Now, she argues, the Sweden Democrats should send the left-wing extremists flowers, thanking them for the publicity.

One reported attack against a Sweden Democrat politician may have been fabricated. Examining one SD politician who reported being attacked, a forensic medical doctor reported that the evidence suggested that his wounds could have been self inflicted. The SD politician has been questioned by the police for possibly falsely reporting a crime.

Results
[[File:Swedish parliamentary election, 2010, results by percentage.svg|right|thumb|300px|Relative support by party.

]] [[File:SwedishGeneralElection2010-map.svg|right|thumb|260px|Coalition dominance by municipality (aggravated). Red‑Greens

Equal

The Alliance

]] [[File:SwedishGeneralElection2010-map-SwedenDemocrats.svg|right|thumb|260px|Relative support of the Sweden Democrats by municipality. Sweden Democrats (max. 15.8%)

]] As exit polls conducted by the national broadcaster Swedish Television predicted, the Sweden Democrats reached the 4% threshold to enter parliament for the first time.

A preliminary count of 5,668 voting districts showed the Alliance of Fredrik Reinfeld ahead of the Red-Greens, with 172 seats. This, however, fell short of the 175 seats needed for an absolute majority and the Sweden Democrats would apparently be holding the balance of power in the new parliament. Reinfeld declared that he had no intention to cooperate with the Sweden Democrats.

On September 23 the final results showed the Centre Party gaining an adjustment seat from Dalarna, giving the Alliance total seat count of 173, still two seats short of an absolute majority. The Alliance's Liberal Party was only 7 and 19 votes short of gaining additional seats in Gothenburg and Värmland respectively, but according to an expert the actual margin was over 800 votes.

Reactions
On the day after the election, anti-Sweden Democrat rallies took place in a number of Swedish cities. Reports indicated that 10,000 people were estimated to have marched in Stockholm under banners reading "We are ashamed", "No racists in Parliament", and "Refugees -- welcome!". In Gothenburg, 5,000 people took part in a "sorrow march against racism", and 2,000 people marched in Malmö. As support for the SD was strongest in the southern most province Scania, where the party received about 10% percent of the vote, and in the neighbouring province Blekinge, where they received 9.9 percent, some people called for Scania to be handed back to Denmark (conquered by the Swedes 1658), where the Danish People's Party were seen as an inspiration for the SD.

The Expressen wrote in an editorial "The banner of tolerance has been hauled down and the forces of darkness have finally also taken the Swedish democracy as a hostage. It's a day of sorrow." Svenska Dagbladet said "[It is] time for the Swedes to get themselves a new national self-image [as the election] created a new picture of Sweden".

Analysis
"'While it’s hard to say that Sweden has woken up to a new self-image, one can say that this is more like a normal European situation and is similar to other western European countries with a proportional election system, where a populist right-wing party has seats in parliament. It’s the party that is the least liked among other voters, so it is not surprising that people have reacted with dismay'. Carl Dahlstroem, a professor of politics at Gothenburg University."

Analysts said there was still a "relatively big" chance of forming a government without the Swedish Democrats if Reinfeldt gets support among such opposition parties as the Green Party, which shares similarity over business-friendly policies, and even the Social Democrats who could support in other areas. Three days after the election day a professor of Mathematics, Svante Linusson, pointed out that there was still a possibility that the Alliance could get a majority of the seats. In particular there were three regions where the Social Democrats may lose a seat to an Alliance party, namely Göteborg, Dalarna, and Värmland. Due to the intricacies of Sweden's voting system it was also possible that they will get a majority of the votes but a minority of the seats. This was to be decided on 22–23 September when the so called "Wednesday votes" (late pre-election day votes and votes from abroad) are counted. After the final count, they were able to get an adjustment seat only in Dalarna; in Gothenburg and Värmland they were 7 and 19 votes short, respectively. However, even these three disctricts would not have made a difference because the Christian Democrats needed another 800 votes nationally to give the Alliance a majority.

Other readings saw the rise of the SD as sending "ripples of shock not only through the country but through European politics," and asked "Is this finally it for the 'Swedish model'" that has been represented as a "meld of liberal values, high taxes, outstanding childcare and welfare that made the country the poster boy for European social democracy?"

The election was also landmark for its impact on the Social Democrats, which had been in government for 65 of the last 78 years and who have never lost two consecutive elections. This was their worst result since universal suffrage in 1921. Its decline was seen as a reflection of the party's inability to adapt, an increasingly technocratic profile, a failure to address immigration concerns, as well as Reinfeldt's success in managing the economy. The Social Democratic failure drew parallels with a larger decline of European left parties. Another theory suggested that electoral failure was based on internal factors, such that the Social Democrats failed to win over the middle class and had completely lost touch with their original vision which had made them a dominant political party. An attempt to blame external factors for their electoral failure was seen as part of an attempt by party leaders to avoid responsibility for electoral defeat. This is based on a general pattern of nationalist politics in which different political blocs have used foreign developments to influence domestic political outcomes in Sweden.

Jonathan Feldman of CounterPunch pointed to the reasons for the failure of the non-Green Left on a series of factors. Firstly, the Social Democratic party failed to differentiate itself from the Right. The Right and Left blocs both supported tax cuts, although the Left also wanted to raise some taxes, and neither supported a significant Keynesian stimulus. Secondly, when the Social Democratic government held power their integration programs were weak, followed by weaker efforts from the right wing incumbents, allowing the Sweden Democrats to point to the integration issues that followed. The Left constantly defended "welfare" and the "welfare state," whereas the Right pointed more effectively to lower taxes, jobs, innovation, entrepreneurship and business development. The Right offered low taxes and a smaller state backed by growth. The Lft gave the impression of offering more taxes and welfare, saying little about core issues regarding economic growth. The Greens made gains, in part because they offered innovative green growth policies, but the Left bloc as a whole failed to counter the Rights' appeals to the middle class. Critics concluded that the Left would continue to lose support unless they promoted examples of a workable alternative economy through case studies at the local level.

The case of Annika Holmqvist, a seriously ill 55-year old woman who had her sickness benefits withdrawn and was requested to seek work, allegedly due to the Alliance's reforms of Sweden's social security system, gave the opposition a late boost in its campaign. Analysts think it might have deprived the Alliance of an overall majority. Holmqvist's daughter wrote about her case in a web log post that gained publicity and become a hot topic in the debates. In spite of promises of a solution, after the election it was decided Holmqvist will lose her benefits.

There was still a likelihood of Reinfeldt's coalition partners staying in office in a minority government. However, this would be only be possible with backing from one or more opposition parties in the Red-Green Alliance. If a government is not formed a new election would have to be called. The Moderate Party was still seen as one of the big winners of the election because of its "well-executed campaign" that emphasised Sweden’s "remarkable political and economic stability in a turbulent world" after Sweden weathered the recession, despite mass unemployment the economic growth in 2010 was the highest in Western Europe. Reinfeldt said the Green Party were his most likely new coalition partner saying "There is no need to use words like chaos. My intention is to use the upcoming period to work through the challenges for Sweden. A clear presentation of the government needs to be made available by the beginning of October."